This article draws on the expertise of Hassan Ali, a seasoned Security Risk Management Consultant with over a decade of experience operating in high-risk environments across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Hassan and our team of global professionals bring firsthand knowledge from the field, ensuring our analysis is grounded in both operational realities and strategic foresight.
The Geopolitical Reality
As global power balances continue to shift, Africa and the Middle East remain at the epicenter of complex security challenges. From rising instability in the Sahel to escalating conflict along the Red Sea corridor, these regions face mounting geopolitical pressures, rapid militarization, and the persistent influence of non-state actors.
For organizations operating in, or planning to expand into, these areas, whether governmental, commercial, or humanitarian, the demand for informed, agile, and locally grounded security risk management has never been more urgent.
- Africa: Russian paramilitary proxies, insurgencies in Nigeria/DRC, and fragile political transitions in Sudan and Ethiopia strain regional cohesion.
- Middle East: Proxy conflicts, Iran-backed militias, drone/cyber threats, and ongoing volatility in Israel-Gaza complicate supply chains and operations.
Understanding the Current Landscape
Africa
Across Africa, the deterioration of central authority in parts of the Sahel, surging influence of Russian paramilitary proxies, and persistent insurgencies in regions like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo have created an unstable operational environment. Meanwhile, fragile political transitions and election-related unrest in countries such as Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic continue to strain regional cohesion.
The Middle East
In the Middle East, proxy conflicts are intensifying. Iran-backed militias remain active across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, while asymmetric threats from drone strikes to cyber intrusions have redefined the risk environment. The continued volatility surrounding the Israel-Gaza conflict, coupled with maritime tensions in the Red Sea and the Levant, further complicates strategic operations and supply chain continuity.
What Lies Ahead: Key Risk Projections (12–18 Months)
For OCONUS (outside the continental United States) operations, the next 12–18 months will require navigating maritime insecurity, decentralized actors, and shifting geopolitical alignments.
- Maritime insecurity in key chokepoints, such as the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, has ripple effects on global shipping and energy markets.
- Proliferation of decentralized threat actors leveraging digital platforms and technology to disrupt governance and business operations.
- Strategic realignments are occurring as regional governments increasingly balance their relationships with the West with engagement from China and Russia.
- Climate-driven unrest, where resource scarcity, especially water and food, fuels intercommunal violence and migration surges.
“These developments underscore the need for organizations to think beyond conventional security models and adopt a proactive, intelligence-led approach.”
How Organizations Can Prepare
At The North Group, we know that success in high-risk environments requires foresight, adaptability, and trusted on-the-ground execution. Our approach combines strategic analysis with operational precision to help clients navigate volatility with confidence.
1. Protective Services & Embedded Risk Management. We deploy customized protective solutions, including executive protection, secure ground transport, and embedded advisors for infrastructure and humanitarian projects, always tailored to the local risk profile.
2. Intelligence-Driven Decision Support. Our geopolitical analysts, OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence) teams, and discreet local HUMINT sources provide timely, actionable intelligence to support threat assessments, site planning, and critical decision-making.
3. Crisis Management & Contingency Planning. We design and implement scalable crisis response frameworks, evacuation strategies, and continuity of operations plans to ensure mission assurance even in rapidly changing conditions.
4. Cultural Engagement & Stakeholder Relations. Effective security is not only physical, it’s relational. We guide clients in understanding the social, tribal, and political dimensions of each operating environment, which is key. We assist clients with engagement strategies that reduce friction, foster local alignment, and enhance overall security outcomes.
Strategic Outlook
Africa and the Middle East will remain high-priority regions for risk mitigation and protective operations. Despite the challenges, with the right intelligence, partnerships, and adaptive strategies, organizations can navigate these spaces both securely and sustainably.
At The North Group, we are committed to supporting our clients with precision, discretion, and unwavering operational integrity. As the threat landscape evolves, so too must our methodologies, ensuring that our clients remain one step ahead.
“Security is not just about protection, it’s about enabling confident operations in uncertain terrain.”
Have a Conversation
Whether you’re expanding operations into Africa, seeking secure transit solutions in the Gulf region, or need strategic advisory support in the Levant, we’re ready to assist. Discover how our OCONUS capabilities support mission-critical operations across Africa and the Middle East.
The North Group: Security. Refined by Intelligence.
